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Many countries will be confronted with ageing populations in the coming decades. This will crucially affect the economic outlook for the economy. Population changes directly affect the size of the labour force and consequently potential employment and output growth. In addition, changes in demographic trends strongly influence savings and investment behaviour, the outlook for the public finances, a range of financial market variables and, more controversially, may impact on the pace of productivity growth in an economy. Because the timing and magnitude of demographic changes varies significantly across regions, international capital flows will play an important role for the allocation of investment. This book offers a comprehensive treatment of ageing related issues based on a five region overlapping generations model and provides a quantitative assessment until 2050.
List of contents
One: Economic and Financial Market Consequences of Global Ageing.- Executive Overview.- Section 1: Global Demographic Trends and Forecasts 1950-2050.- Section 2: How is Ageing Likely to Impact Economically over the Next 50 Years: What are the Main Transmission Mechanisms?.- Section 3: Global Capital Market Developments, Current Account Imbalances and the Evidence for Agerelated International Capital Flows.- Section 4: Global Ageing Scenario 2000-2050.- Section 5: Policy Response: How Can the EU and the World as a Whole Effectively Deal with the Challenges of Ageing?.- Detailed Summary of Main Points from Part 1.- Two: EU Pension Reform - an Overview of the Debate and an Empirical Assessment of the Main Policy Reform Options.- Executive Overview of Key Policy Conclusions.- Introductory Remarks.- Section 1: Overview of the Pension Reform Debate.- Section 2: Description of Model Used to Assess the Pension Reform Options.- Section 3: PAYG System: Economic Assessment of the Main Parametric / Labour Market Reform Options: What is needed to Bring the System Back into Equilibrium?.- Section 4: Systemic Reform: 2 Key Factors to be Considered: Internal Rates of Return + Transition Burden.- Section 5: Economic Assessment of a Full / Partial Shift to Funding.- Section 6: An "Optimal" EU Pension Reform Strategy.- Detailed Summary of Main Points from Part 2.- Three: Annexes.- Annex 1: Member States Analysis.- Annex 2: Detailed Description of Ageing Model.- Annex 3: Basic Data on Savings, Wealth Holdings and Retirement Income Financing.- Annex 4: Results of Comparable Ageing Studies.- Annex 5: Prefunding within the PAYG System: Intergenerational Equity Objective.- List of Graphs.- List of Tables.- References.
Summary
Many countries will be confronted with ageing populations in the coming decades. This will crucially affect the economic outlook for the economy. Population changes directly affect the size of the labour force and consequently potential employment and output growth. Because the timing and magnitude of demographic changes varies significantly across regions, international capital flows will play an important role for the allocation of investment. This book offers a comprehensive treatment of ageing related issues based on a five region overlapping generations model and provides a quantitative assessment until 2050.
Additional text
From the reviews:
"In The Economic and Financial Market Consequences of Global Ageing, European Commission (EC) economists Kieran Mcmorrow and Werner Roeger examine the likely effects of … differential aging trends on GDP, consumption, savings, investment returns, capital flows, and net foreign assets for key economic regions. … provides a useful … introduction to a world just over the horizon, in which aging has changed everything." (Paul S. Hewitt, PEF - Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Vol. 3 (2), 2004)
"The book certainly contains a wide range of projections, analyses, graphs and tables that everyone with an interest in the questions of ageing and pension systems will want to study further. On top of this, the book is highly pedagogical, giving some very useful clarifications of the many concepts used in the debate of pension systems." (Michael Tiet Nielson, CoverAGE, Issue 36, 2004)
Report
From the reviews:
"In The Economic and Financial Market Consequences of Global Ageing, European Commission (EC) economists Kieran Mcmorrow and Werner Roeger examine the likely effects of ... differential aging trends on GDP, consumption, savings, investment returns, capital flows, and net foreign assets for key economic regions. ... provides a useful ... introduction to a world just over the horizon, in which aging has changed everything." (Paul S. Hewitt, PEF - Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Vol. 3 (2), 2004)
"The book certainly contains a wide range of projections, analyses, graphs and tables that everyone with an interest in the questions of ageing and pension systems will want to study further. On top of this, the book is highly pedagogical, giving some very useful clarifications of the many concepts used in the debate of pension systems." (Michael Tiet Nielson, CoverAGE, Issue 36, 2004)
