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Informationen zum Autor Terje Aven, University of Stavanger, Norway. Klappentext Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment.New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:* An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and describe risk based on research carried out in recent years.* A new definition of the concept of vulnerability consistent with the understanding of risk.* Reflections on the need for seeing beyond probabilities to measure/describe uncertainties.* A presentation and discussion of a method for assessing the importance of assumptions (uncertainty factors) in the background knowledge that the subjective probabilities are based on* A brief introduction to approaches that produce interval (imprecise) probabilities instead of exact probabilities.In addition the new version provides a number of other improvements, for example, concerning the use of cost-benefit analyses and the As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) principle.Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty. Zusammenfassung This book presents the issues core to risk analysis: understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. Inhaltsverzeichnis Preface to the second edition ix Preface to the first edition xi 1 Introduction 1 1.1 The importance of risk and uncertainty assessments 1 1.2 The need to develop a proper risk analysis framework 4 Bibliographic notes 6 2 Common thinking about risk and risk analysis 7 2.1 Accident risk 7 2.1.1 Accident statistics 7 2.1.2 Risk analysis 11 2.1.3 Reliability analysis 24 2.2 Economic risk 28 2.2.1 General definitions of economic risk in business and project management 28 2.2.2 A cost risk analysis 30 2.2.3 Finance and portfolio theory 31 2.2.4 Treatment of risk in project discounted cash flow analysis 34 2.3 Discussion and conclusions 36 2.3.1 The classical approach 36 2.3.2 The Bayesian paradigm 37 2.3.3 Economic risk and rational decision-making 39 2.3.4 Other perspectives and applications 40 2.3.5 Conclusions 43 Bibliographic notes 43 3 How to think about risk and risk analysis 47 3.1 Basic ideas and principles 47 3.1.1 Background knowledge 52 3.1.2 Models and simplifications in probability considerations 53 3.1.3 Observable quantities 53 3.2 Economic risk 54 3.2.1 A simple cost risk example 54 3.2.2 Production risk 57 3.2.3 Business and project management 59 3.2.4 Investing money in a stock market 60 3.2.5 Discounted cash flow analysis 61 3.3 Accident risk 62 3.4 Discussion 63 Bibliographic notes 68 4 How to assess uncertainties and specify probabilities 71 4.1 What is a good probability assignment? 72 4.1.1 Criteria for evaluating probabilities 72 4.1.2 Heuristics and bias...
