Quantitative Approach to Commercial Damages, + Website - Applying Statistics to the Measurement of Lost Profits

Informationen zum Autor MARK G. FILLER , CPA/ABV, CBA, AM, CVA, is President of Filler & Associates, a valuation and litigation support practice. He recently was also chair of the editorial board of NACVA's The Valuation Examiner and coauthor of NACVA's quarterly marketing newsletter Insights on Valuation . Filler has published various articles and is recognized as a qualified expert witness, testifying frequently on business valuation, commercial damages, and personal injury matters at depositions and in state and federal courts. JAMES A. DIGABRIELE, PHD/DPS, CPA/ABV, CFF, CFE, CFSA, CR.FA, CVA, is a professor of accounting at Montclair State University and has been published in various journals, including Journal of Forensic Accounting, Journal of Business Valuation and Economic Loss Analysis, and The Value Examiner. Dr. DiGabriele is also Managing Director of DiGabriele, McNulty, Campanella & Co., LLC, an accounting firm specializing in forensic/investigative accounting and litigation support. Klappentext How-to guidance for measuring lost profits due to business interruption damagesA Quantitative Approach to Commercial Damages explains the complicated process of measuring business interruption damages, whether they are losses are from natural or man-made disasters, or whether the performance of one company adversely affects the performance of another. Using a methodology built around case studies integrated with solution tools, this book is presented step by step from the analysis damages perspective to aid in preparing a damage claim. Over 250 screen shots are included and key cell formulas that show how to construct a formula and lay it out on the spreadsheet.* Includes excel spreadsheet applications and key cell formulas for those who wish to construct their own spreadsheets* Offers a step-by-step approach to computing damages using case studies and over 250 screen shotsOften in the course of business, a firm will be damaged by the actions of another individual or company, such as a fire that shuts down a restaurant for two months. Often, this results in the filing of a business interruption claim. Discover how to measure business losses with the proven guidance found in A Quantitative Approach to Commercial Damages. Zusammenfassung How-to guidance for measuring lost profits due to business interruption damages. This book explains the complicated process of measuring business interruption damages, whether they are losses are from natural or man-made disasters, or whether the performance of one company adversely affects the performance of another. Inhaltsverzeichnis Preface xvii Is This a Course in Statistics? xvii How This Book is Set Up xviii The Job of the Testifying Expert xix About the Companion Web Site-Spreadsheet Availability xix Note xx Acknowledgments xxi Introduction The Application of Statistics to the Measurement of Damages for Lost Profits 1 The Three Big Statistical Ideas 1 Variation 1 Correlation 2 Rejection Region or Area 4 Introduction to the Idea of Lost Profits 6 Stage 1. Calculating the Difference Between Those Revenues That Should Have Been Earned and What Was Actually Earned During the Period of Interruption 7 Stage 2. Analyzing Costs and Expenses to Separate Continuing from Noncontinuing 8 Stage 3. Examining Continuing Expenses Patterns for Extra Expense 8 Stage 4. Computing the Actual Loss Sustained or Lost Profits 8 Choosing a Forecasting Model 9 Type of Interruption 9 Length of Period of Interruption 10 Availability of Historical Data 10 Regularity of Sales Trends and Patterns 10 Ease of Explanation 10 Conventional Forecasting Models 11 Simple Arithmetic Models 11 More Complex Arithmetic Models ...

List of contents

Preface xvii
 
Is This a Course in Statistics? xvii
 
How This Book Is Set Up xviii
 
The Job of the Testifying Expert xix
 
About the Companion Web Site--Spreadsheet Availability xix
 
Note xx
 
Acknowledgments xxi
 
INTRODUCTION The Application of Statistics to the Measurement of Damages for Lost Profits 1
 
The Three Big Statistical Ideas 1
 
Variation 1
 
Correlation 2
 
Rejection Region or Area 4
 
Introduction to the Idea of Lost Profits 6
 
Stage 1. Calculating the Difference Between Those Revenues That Should Have Been Earned and What Was Actually Earned During the Period of Interruption 7
 
Stage 2. Analyzing Costs and Expenses to Separate Continuing from Noncontinuing 8
 
Stage 3. Examining Continuing Expenses Patterns for Extra Expense 8
 
Stage 4. Computing the Actual Loss Sustained or Lost Profits 8
 
Choosing a Forecasting Model 9
 
Type of Interruption 9
 
Length of Period of Interruption 10
 
Availability of Historical Data 10
 
Regularity of Sales Trends and Patterns 10
 
Ease of Explanation 10
 
Conventional Forecasting Models 11
 
Simple Arithmetic Models 11
 
More Complex Arithmetic Models 11
 
Trendline and Curve-Fitting Models 12
 
Seasonal Factor Models 12
 
Smoothing Methods 12
 
Multiple Regression Models 13
 
Other Applications of Statistical Models 14
 
Conclusion 14
 
Notes 15
 
CHAPTER 1 Case Study 1--Uses of the Standard Deviation 17
 
The Steps of Data Analysis 17
 
Shape 18
 
Spread 19
 
Conclusion 23
 
Notes 23
 
CHAPTER 2 Case Study 2--Trend and Seasonality Analysis 25
 
Claim Submitted 25
 
Claim Review 26
 
Occupancy Percentages 26
 
Trend, Seasonality, and Noise 28
 
Trendline Test 33
 
Cycle Testing 33
 
Conclusion 34
 
Note 36
 
CHAPTER 3 Case Study 3--An Introduction to Regression Analysis and Its Application to the Measurement of Economic Damages 37
 
What Is Regression Analysis and Where Have I Seen It Before? 37
 
A Brief Introduction to Simple Linear Regression 38
 
I Get Good Results with Average or Median Ratios--Why Should I Switch to Regression Analysis? 40
 
How Does One Perform a Regression Analysis Using Microsoft Excel? 43
 
Why Does Simple Linear Regression Rarely Give Us the Right Answer, and What Can We Do about It? 51
 
Should We Treat the Value Driver Annual Revenue in the Same Manner as We Have Seller's Discretionary Earnings? 60
 
What Are the Meaning and Function of the Regression Tool's Summary Output? 68
 
Regression Statistics 69
 
Tests and Analysis of Residuals 75
 
Testing the Linearity Assumption 77
 
Testing the Normality Assumption 78
 
Testing the Constant Variance Assumption 80
 
Testing the Independence Assumption 83
 
Testing the No Errors-in-Variables Assumption 84
 
Testing the No Multicollinearity Assumption 84
 
Conclusion 87
 
Note 87
 
CHAPTER 4 Case Study 4--Choosing a Sales Forecasting Model: A Trial and Error Process 89
 
Correlation with Industry Sales 89
 
Conversion to Quarterly Data 89
 
Quadratic Regression Model 92
 
Problems with the Quarterly Quadratic Model 92
 
Substituting a Monthly Quadratic Model 94
 
Conclusion 95
 
Note 99
 
CHAPTER 5 Case Study 5--Time Series Analysis with Seasonal Adjustment 101
 
Exploratory Data Analys

Product details

• Authors: Digabriele, James A Digabriele, James A. DiGabriele, Filler, M Filler, Mark Filler, Mark G Filler, Mark G. Filler, Mark G. Digabriele Filler, FILLER MARK G DIGABRIELE JAMES
• Publisher: Wiley, John and Sons Ltd
• Languages: English
• Product format: Hardback
• Released: 25.05.2012
• EAN: 9781118072592
• ISBN: 978-1-118-07259-2
• No. of pages: 352
• Subjects: Social sciences, law, business > Business > Business administration; Rechnungswesen, Bewertung, Accounting, Valuation