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Adaption and rev. of: Les signaux faibles et la veille anticipative pour les decideurs. 2011.
List of contents
Introduction xi
Chapter 1. Concepts, Issues and Hypotheses 1 1.1. Introduction: governance and radar 1
1.2. The organization's environment and its governance through a "storm" 8
1.3. Anticipation (act of looking forward) 15
1.4. Anticipative information: two types 23
1.5. Weak signals 25
1.6. Detecting weak signals 43
1.7. Interpreting, amplifying and exploiting weak signals to support strategic decision making 47
1.8. Puzzle® method for the operationalization of CCM 59
1.9. Global VASIC process for detecting, recognizing and utilizing weak signals 69
1.10. Conclusion 79
Chapter 2. Detecting, Recognizing and Corroborating a Weak Signal: Applications 81 2.1. Recognition of a weak signal: examples 82
2.2. Making a new weak signal reliable 95
2.3. Conclusion 101
Chapter 3. Utilization of Weak Signals, Collective Creation of Meaning: Applications 105 3.1. The Roger case: should we fear this new entrant to our industry? (the banking sector) 105
3.2. The case for "valorizing CO2 as a commodity": a preliminary study for the selection of a new
strategic direction 119
3.3. The Danone case. The ministry is worried: are there signs showing that companies will destroy jobs over the next two years? Could Danone leave France? 132
3.4. The Opel case: initiating collective transversal intelligence to aid strategic decision-making 147
3.5. Conclusion 163
Chapter 4. Preparation of Weak Signals for Sessions in Collective Creation of Meaning: Applications 169 4.1. Introduction: two starting situations 169
4.2. The Roger case (continued): how are the news briefs used in the Roger CCM session prepared? 170
4.3. CO2 valorization case: automatic search for "news briefs" 174
4.4. The Danone case: preparation of the weak signals 181
4.5. Software modules for assisting in the automatic search for news briefs 185
4.6. Conclusion 196
Conclusion 199
Glossary 203
Bibliography 217
Index 227
About the author
Humbert Lesca is Emeritus Professor at Pierre Mendès France University, Grenoble, France and director of research at the CERAG-CNRS (center for studies and research applied to management) laboratory.
Nicolas Lesca is Professor at Claude Bernard University, Lyon, France, and a director of research at the CERAG-CNRS laboratory.
Summary
The expression "We did not see it coming!" has often been heard in recent years from decision makers at the highest levels of the private and public sectors. Yet there were actually early warning signals, but they were often ignored due to a lack of appropriate methodology.
