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Accurate predictions are essential in many areas such as corporate decision making, weather forecasting and technology forecasting. Prediction markets help to aggregate information and gain a better understanding of the future by leveraging the wisdom of the crowds. Trading prices in prediction markets thus reflect the traders' aggregated expectations on the outcome of uncertain future events and can be used to predict the likelihood of these events. This book demonstrates that markets are accurate predictors. Results from several empirical studies reported in this work show the importance of designing such markets properly in order to derive valuable predictions. Therefore, the findings are valuable for designing future prediction markets.
List of contents
Fundamentals of Prediction Markets
Key Design Elements of Prediction Markets
Applications of Prediction Markets
Prediction Markets in Service Industries
About the author
Prof. Dr. Bernd Skiera hat seit 1999 an der Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität in Frankfurt am Main den ersten Lehrstuhl für Electronic Commerce in Deutschland inne. Dort widmet sich insbesondere den im Bereich des Electronic Commerce vorliegenden ökonomischen Prinzipien. Professor Skiera hat - neben einer Reihe wissenschaftlicher Beiträge - Bücher zum Thema Electronic Commerce, Marketing mit Interaktiven Medien, Preispolitik und Außendienststeuerung publiziert. Im Sommer 2001 wurde er mit dem eBusiness Germany Award ausgezeichnet.
Summary
Accurate predictions are essential in many areas such as corporate decision making, weather forecasting and technology forecasting. Prediction markets help to aggregate information and gain a better understanding of the future by leveraging the wisdom of the crowds. Trading prices in prediction markets thus reflect the traders’ aggregated expectations on the outcome of uncertain future events and can be used to predict the likelihood of these events. This book demonstrates that markets are accurate predictors. Results from several empirical studies reported in this work show the importance of designing such markets properly in order to derive valuable predictions. Therefore, the findings are valuable for designing future prediction markets.
