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A discussion of future trends in human reproduction, longevity, and migration. The three components of population change - fertility, mortality and migration - are addressed, along with possible demographic discontinuities.
List of contents
The Future of Longevity:
T. Valkonen, Assumptions about Mortality Trends in Industrialized Countries: A Survey.
J. Duchêne and G. Wunsch, Population Aging and the Limits to Human Life.
O. Andersen, Occupational Impacts on Mortality Declines in the Nordic Countries.
P. Józan, Changes in Hungarian Mortality and the Role of the National Health Promotion Program.
G. Heilig, The Possible Impact of AIDS on Future Mortality.
K.G. Manton, New Biotechnologies and the Limits to Life Expectancy.
L. Day, Upper-Age Longevity in Low-Mortality Countries: A Dissenting View.
The Future of Reproduction:
A. Kliger, Survey of Recent Fertility Trends and Assumptions Used for Projections.
G. Feeney and W. Lutz, Distributional Analysis of Period Fertility.
C. Calhoun and J. De Beer, Birth Expectations and Population Forecasts: The Case of the Netherlands.
C.F. Westoff, The Return to Replacement Fertility: A Magnetic Force?
N. Keyfitz, Subreplacement Fertility: The Third Level of Explanation.
C. Höhn, Policies Relevant to Fertility.
A. Vishnevsky, Demographic Revolution and the Future of Fertility: A Systems Approach.
The Future of Migratory Flows and Regional Trends:
A.B. Wils, Survey of Immigration Trends and Assumptions about Future Migration.
T. Espenshade, M. White, and F. Bean, Patterns of Recent Illegal Migration to the United States.
G. Steinmann, Immigration as a Remedy for the Birth Dearth: The Case of West Germany.
R. Beaujot, Immigration Policy and Sociodemographic Change: The Canadian Case.
T. Büttner and C. Prinz, Structure and Impact of German East-West Migration.
W. Serow and D. Sly, Geographic Mobility of the Elderly in Industrialized Societies.
S. Scherbov and W. Lutz, Regional Population Patterns in the Soviet Union: Scenarios to the Year 2050.
Combining the Three Components in Population Projection:
N. Keilman, National Population Projection Methods in Developed Countries.
S. Inoue and A.B. Wils, United Nations Population Projections.
J.F. Long, Relative Effects of Fertility, Mortality, and Immigration on Projected Age Structure.
W. Lutz, C. Prinz, A.B. Wils, T. Büttner, and G. Heilig, Alternative Demographic Scenarios for Europe and North America.
Chapter References.
Author Information.
Index.
