Mehr lesen
Informationen zum Autor Dylan Evans Klappentext ?With an arsenal of studies and statistics, Evans covers fascinating topics, including battlefield strategies, overconfidence, lies, and the tendency to follow the crowd...a valuable manual? (Publishers Weekly) introducing the recently discovered type of intelligence. ?Risk Intelligence is really a great contribution for dealing with the biggest challenge we have in an interconnected world: complexity, velocity, and uncertainty? (Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman, World Economic Forum).As acclaimed author and lecturer Dylan Evans reveals in his latest work, there is a special kind of intelligence for dealing with risk and uncertainty. But shockingly, many people in positions that require high risk intelligence?doctors, financial regulators, and bankers, for instance?seem unable to navigate what Evans calls the ?darkened room,? the domain of doubt and uncertainty. Risk Intelligence is a traveller's guide to the twilight zone of probabilities and speculation. Evans shows us how risk intelligence is crucial to making good decisions, from dealing with climate change to combating terrorism. He argues that we can all learn a lot from expert gamblers, not just about money, but about how to make decisions in all aspects of our lives. Introducing a wealth of fascinating research findings and using a wide range of real-life examples?from the brilliant risk assessment skills of horse race handicappers to the tragically flawed evaluations of risk that caused the 2009 financial crisis?Evans reveals the common errors in our thinking that undermine our risk intelligence. Both highly engaging and truly mind-changing, Risk Intelligence shows how we can improve our thinking in order to enhance our lives.Risk Intelligence CHAPTER 1 Why Risk Intelligence Matters He who knows best, best knows how little he knows. — THOMAS JEFFERSON Kathryn, who is a detective, is good at spotting lies. While her colleagues seem to see them everywhere, she is more circumspect. When she’s interviewing a suspect, she doesn’t jump to conclusions. Instead she patiently looks for the telltale signs that suggest dishonesty. Even so, she is rarely 100 percent sure that she’s spotted a lie; it’s more often a question of tilting the scales one way or another, she says. Jamie is viewed as a bit of an oddball at the investment bank where he works. When everyone else is sure that prices will continue to go up, Jamie is often more skeptical. On the other hand, there are times when everyone else is pessimistic but Jamie is feeling quite bullish. Jamie and his colleagues are not always at odds, but when they disagree it tends to be Jamie who is right. Diane is overjoyed about her new relationship. When she phones her best friend, Evelyn, to tell her all about the new man in her life, Evelyn urges caution. “What’s the chance that you’ll still be with this guy in twelve months?” she asks, as she has done before. Diane’s reply is just as predictable. “Oh, ninety, maybe ninety-five percent,” she replies, as she always does. “I’m sure Danny is the one!” Two months later, she’s broken up again. Jeff has just been promoted to the rank of captain in the US Army. Since he is new to the role, he often feels unsure of his decisions and seeks out his colonel for a second opinion. The colonel is beginning to get rather tired of Jeff’s pestering him, and has taken to playing a little game. Whenever Jeff asks his opinion, he responds by asking how confident Jeff is of his own hunch. Usually Jeff replies that he’s only about 40 or 50 percent sure. But nine times of out ten, the colonel agrees with Jeff’s opinion. These four people display different degrees of risk intelligence. Kathryn and Jamie have h...
