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The purpose of this study is to analyze the alternative growth paths open to a region under various policies designed to control the growth oftour ism. This is motivated by the current interest of decision-makers in con trolling the growth of tourism. Such interest and any policies which emanate from it may prove detrimental unless a thorough understanding of the consequences of these policies are the foundation upon which the decisions are made. The study consists of four parts, each is written by an author or a group of authors. Thus, while the logical sequence of the parts and the feedbacks among them unify the study, the methodology adopted in each is different, reflecting the diversity and dexterity of forecasting techniques in econo mics. This variety of techniques is desirable in itself as it exposes the reader to some of the alternative approaches. In chapter 1, the theory of regional growth, and in particular the dis tinction between the supply-based and the demand-based models, is dis cussed. The role played by natural resource constraints is shown to be absent from both types of models, and it is argued that this role can be investigated by considering the alternative growth paths available to the region through variations in the rate oftuilization of the resource. To ac complish that, however, a model of regional growth is needed. The empiri cal evidence provided favour a demand-type model. A model of this type is developed and utilized in succeeding parts of the study.
Sommario
1. Regional Growth and Resource Constraints.- 1.1. Introduction.- 1.2. Models of regional growth.- 1.3. A model of regional growth.- 1.4. Regional growth policy.- 2. The Future of Hawaii's Major Exports.- 2.1. Introduction.- 2.2. Federal government expenditures.- 2.3. Sugar.- 2.4. Pineapple.- 2.5. Tourism.- 2.6. Conclusions.- 3. Alternative Growth Paths for Hawaii.- 3.1. Introduction.- 3.2. The model.- 3.3. Distribution models.- 3.4. Simulation of the impact of policy alternatives.- 3.5. Conclusions.- 4. The Effects of Alternative Growth Paths on Long Run Fiscal Balance.- 4.1. Introduction.- 4.2. Description of alternative growth configurations.- 4.3. Description of state government expenditure methodology.- 4.4. An overview of the sensitivity of expected expenditure growth to workload and price changes.- 4.5. Measurement and projection of program specific price indices.- 4.6. Summary of the results.- 4.7. Summary and interpretation of the simulation results.- 4.8. Impact of debt service growth on expenditure trends.- 4.9. Conclusions.- Appendices.- Appendix A: Definitions of variables and sources of data.- Appendix B: The migration equations.- Appendix C: Methodology for determining demographic and economic characteristics of each growth case.- Appendix D: Identification of workload sensitivity of specific expenditure programs to population changes.
