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In einer zunehmend komplexeren Welt spielt die Entscheidungsanalyse eine bedeutende Rolle. Sie hilft Entscheidungsträgern, anstehende Probleme besser zu verstehen, da sich im Entscheidungsprozeß oft Fehler einschleichen können. In den vergangenen 5 Jahren wurden neue, weitaus bessere Techniken sowie eine ausgeklügelte Software zur Unterstützung von Entscheidungsprozessen entwickelt. Alle Kapitel der 1. Auflage wurden überarbeitet. Zusätzliche Kapitel behandeln die neuesten Erkenntnisse aus verschiedenen Disziplinen. Der Schwerpunkt des Buches wird darüber hinaus durch Szenarioplanung, Strategien der Entscheidungsfindung sowie ergänzende Fallstudien erweitert.
Inhaltsverzeichnis
B
Contents
S
Foreword
Preface
Chapter 1 Introduction
Chapter 2 Decisions involving multiple objectives
Chapter 3 How people make decisions involving multiple objectives
Chapter 4 Introduction to probability
Chapter 5 Decision making under uncertainty
Chapter 6 Decision trees and influence diagrams
Chapter 7 Applying simulation to decision problems
Chapter 8 Revising judgments in the light of new information
Chapter 9 Biases in probalility assessment
Chapter 10 Methods of eliciting probabilities
Chapter 11 Decisions involving groups of individuals
Chapter 12 Resource allocation and negotiation problems
Chapter 13 Decision framing and cognitive inertia
Chapter 14 Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty
Chapter 15 The analytic hierarchy process
Chapter 16 Alternative decision-support systems
Suggested answers to selected questions
Suppliers of computer software
Index
Über den Autor / die Autorin
Paul Goodwin is Senior Lecturer in Management Science in the Management School at the University of Bath. His research interests focus on the role of management judgment in forecasting and decision-making, and he has published in key journals in the field. He is an Associate Editor of the International Journal of Forecasting and a member of the editorial board of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. He has consulted with firms such as British Telecom and South Western Electricity
George Wright is a psychologist with an interest in the role and validity of judgment in decision making and forecasting. He is especially interested in the use of management science- and behaviorally-based methods to improve decision-making. He has published in key journals, and is the Editor of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. He has consulted with firms such as IBM, ICL, NEC, Petronas, Jordan Ministry of Planning, and the Scottish Football Association.
